Allen Weisselberg-Protractor Man & Manhattan DA Trump Investigation Observations & Predictions
The Manhattan DA’s Trump Organization investigation has reportedly picked up recently so rising to the challenge, some observations/predictions are provided based on media reports currently surfacing with regard to the Cy Vance probe.
Vance announced that he will not seek re-election in 2022
This announcement takes away Trump’s main argument that the Manhattan DA’s office is continuing a political witch hunt. Might that argument be applied to Vance’s successor? Possibly, but that would be contingent on the timing of any indictment/trial for Trump.
It was leaked that Vance wants to make a prosecution decision on the Trump case before the end of the year
It is likely that such an announcement will come well before the end of the year. In fact, one could argue that Vance announced his retirement now essentially because a preliminary review of the Mazar’s evidence has corroborated the prosecution theory being considered for Trump et al and Vance feels good enough about the prospects of the case that he went ahead and made his retirement announcement thereby initiating mitigation of Trump’s main public relations defense.
Statute of Limitations Issues
it was recently leaked to CNN that the Manhattan DA will make use of the so-called Weinstein maneuver with regard to the statutes of limitation ticking on several prospective criminal statutes under consideration pertaining to prosecution of Trump et al. The prosecution team will look to clock Trump’s time away from NY in an effort to toll the statutes.
This leak may well be typical pre-trial disinformation or maskirovka directed at the Trump defense team.
On the other hand, most criminal offenses in NY state likely under consideration by prosecutors for application in the Trump matter possess a five — year statute of limitations. So, if such statutes as Mail fraud or Bank fraud were being considered, any transactions conducted in 2016 that might qualify for prosecution would now be under serious jeopardy since we are in early 2021. Tax fraud is a bit different due to the fact those statutes start clocking in from the time the tax returns in question were filed. Most folks file their personal tax returns by April although many file extensions. The statute of limitations clock starts whenever the final return for the tax year is submitted. Business returns of course are filed by fiscal year and we don’t know what the filing period is for the Trump Organization tax returns.
While most of the public interest in this case is centered on Trump, the prosecution team needs to address, investigate and prosecute all of those involved in the alleged “extensive and protracted criminal conduct,” relative to the Trump Organization. This point once again raises the issue of potential witnesses to the criminal conduct and raises the question of what sort of plea bargain arrangements will ultimately be reached with regard to each of the Trump children as well as Trump Organization executives . Before exploring potential plea bargains, Vance will need the availability of criminal offenses under New York State criminal code that contain sentencing flexibility which will then require statutes of limitation flexibility in order to maximize plea bargaining leverage. How might the esteemed office of the Manhattan District Attorney proceed?
RICO — Racketeer Influenced Corrupt Organization
The addition of Mark Pomerantz, a well-respected authority with regard to RICO, to the Manhattan DA’s prosecution team raises the distinct possibility in my mind that RICO charges are being strongly considered for multiple defendants associated with the Trump Organization. Filing a RICO indictment would then raise the possibility of negotiating individual pleas to a fallback charge of some type of fraud e.g., mail fraud, wire fraud, bank fraud etc. each of which has a five-year statutory maximum prison exposure compared to RICO’s 20 years. The sentencing impact of RICO is believed to be the driving force in breaking down Organized Crime groups over the years. It has been said that even the strongest stand-up mob guy would have trouble fading the 20-year statutory maximum sentence available upon RICO conviction.
RICO requires evidence of at least two predicate crimes within a 10-year period that must have been committed through an enterprise. The referenced enterprise here would be the Trump Organization.
RICO’s first objective will be to identify the corrupt organization and all those that contributed to its corruption with the ultimate aim of this powerful statute to bring everyone down that participates in the racketeering enterprise no matter what their respective marching orders or role might be. The prosecution would likely first start with the falsification of corporate books and records e.g. falsified financial statements submitted to Banks, Insurance companies and tax authorities thereby leading to predicate RICO charges of mail/wire fraud, bank fraud etc.
Not insignificantly, RICO allows the DA to go back in time for its prosecutive purposes. For example, if the Trump Organization submitted false documents to a financial institution in 2016 in application for a loan, then the Manhattan DA could go back 10 years from there under a RICO prosecution theory to prosecute any similar type of false financial statement submission within that period of time thereby establishing pattern which is a necessary component of RICO. This prosecution strategy obviously extends the normal five-year statute of limitations substantially, thereby providing the prosecution team with a maximum statute of limitations flexibility that then allows for the plea bargaining flexibility and leverage that every Prosecutor craves.
To violate RICO a person must engage in a pattern of racketeering activity connected to an enterprise. When the Manhattan DA referenced “extensive and protracted criminal conduct” in a Supreme Court argument with regard to the Trump Organization — he seemed to come really close to describing the Trump Organization as an enterprise that would qualify for RICO charges. The use of the word protracted may seem redundant to wannabe editors everywhere but this phrasing was purposeful. Protracted really is a synonym for extensive, with the added variable of time. Protracted = extensive over time. And time is a meaningful component of RICO as noted above.
Protractor Man
Who could/would be a knowledgeable witness with regard to the protracted criminal conduct alleged to have occurred at the Trump enterprise over time?
Allen Weisselberg — the human protractor.
Consider for a moment that protractors are used to measure angles; and protractors usually have two sets of numbers going in opposite directions!
Trump kept Weisselberg around for decades precisely because he knew all the angles and could provide whatever numbers were needed for any given transaction proposed by the Capo di tutti of the Trump Organization..
Mr. Weisselberg was given immunity by SDNY to testify against Michael Cohen with regard to the Stormy Daniels hush money payoff scheme. Recall the memorable recording made by Michael Cohen where he recounted that “I’ve spoken to Allen Weisselberg about how to set the whole thing up.” Michael Cohen has since testified before Congress that Weisselberg was Trump’s go to guy with regard to preparing bogus financials in connection with falsified loan applications and other nefarious financial misdeeds.
It is likely that the Manhattan DA will prosecute Weisselberg under the RICO statute for working the angles and manipulating the numbers relative to the protracted criminal conduct alleged to have occurred at the Trump Organization. When Weisselberg, who is no spring chicken(DoB 8/15/47), contemplates a maximum RICO conviction sentence of 20 years in prison, it is believed that his well-known loyalty to Donald Trump will evaporate at the courthouse doors. The long time CFO and human protractor will then cooperate with the Manhattan DA and corroborate Michael Cohen’s testimony with regard to the extensive criminal conduct engaged in by the Trump Organization and a number of its executives. In return, he will likely negotiate a plea to a lesser crime such as falsifying the books and records at the Trump Organization and hopefully garner a much smaller jail sentence for his involvement in cooking the books.
When Weisselberg measures, then plays the only angle left him and turns state’s evidence, it will likely trigger a plea-bargaining stampede to the offices of the Manhattan DA at 1 Hogan Pl in lower Manhattan.
Flip City
If Donald Trump Jr. and Eric Trump know that Weisselberg — ‘the Donald’s’ go-to guy — is cooperating — how long before they enter their own plea bargains — Don Jr. for his involvement in writing checks to Michael Cohen based on fictitious invoices submitted for legal retainer to disguise the hush money reimbursements; and Eric’s involvement in the alleged bogus valuation activities relative to the Trump Seven Springs easement property? Wouldn’t submission of guilty pleas to Tax fraud or Wire fraud with a five-year statutory maximum sentence be more appealing than a possible RICO conviction sentence of twenty years in prison?
Daddy’s Little Girl
What lies ahead for Ivanka besides a host of questions?
Did she report to the tax authorities both the consultant fees and employee salary she received for doing the same work while employed as an executive at the Trump Organization? Did she knowingly and willfully facilitate the cooking of the books at the Trump Organization and the falsification of financial records to cover up or disguise her receipt of the alleged double payment of income? Did Jared know about any of it when he signed off on their joint tax returns? Did Don Jr. or Eric know about their sister’s alleged double dipping? How would she look in orange?(Her father’s dyed hair nicely coordinates with the orange jumpsuit mandated in Rikers).
Might Ivanka confront her father and stamp her Jimmy Choo encased foot on the ground and insist he make it all go away?
Could/would Daddy dearest — fall on his sword and do the one noble act of his life that would define his legacy forever and cut his final deal as a free man, by pleading out to the Manhattan DA in return for favorable treatment of Daddy’s little girl?
Nah.
Marty Sheil
email: martinsheil@protonmail.com